The Canadian government has fallen behind on its target to facilitate 600 petajoules of annual energy savings as it advances toward an interim target to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. A newly released audit from the federal Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development concludes that key departments tasked with delivering energy efficiency and emissions reduction programs are making progress, but the results can be difficult to express in tangible numbers.
The audit covers the period from June 1, 2020 to March 31, 2023, during which annual energy savings from implemented federal measures are pegged at 99.2 petajoules. As well, with approximately 82 per cent of the nationwide electricity supply coming from renewable or non-emitting sources, there is still significant distance to close on the 90 per cent target for 2030.
Commissioner Jerry DeMarco finds that Natural Resources Canada and Environment and Climate Change Canada often don’t have the full data to accurately calculate savings arising from their initiatives. In some cases, they are reliant on other levels of government to be the executing agents in order to realize projected savings. In other cases, they’re off-target because the initial expectations were overly ambitious and/or actual program uptake took a different course than had been foreseen.
Notably, plans to realize energy savings through updates to the National Energy Code and drive high-performance via Energy Star Portfolio Manager have slipped the farthest off-target. This was projected to reduce energy consumption by 132.6 petajoules annually by 2030, but had translated into just 8.7 petajoules annually as of 2023.
In this case, the Commissioner notes that the National Research Council is technically the originator of model national codes, but that energy savings and emission reductions can not be realized until provincial or municipal governments adopt and enforce them. Natural Resources Canada likewise supports investment and research in clean energy technologies, which the Commissioner calls “relevant and enabling for clean power generation” but not translatable into a megawatt metric.
Federally regulated products have thus far delivered the largest share of achieved savings, at 49 petajoules annually, but that remains far from the targeted 219.5 petajoules annually by 2030. Meanwhile, the Commissioner pointed to the revised projections for emissions reductions in homes — from 820 down to 487 kilotonnes — because program participants opted for costlier retrofits (heat pumps versus insulation upgrades) than was foreseen and a smaller number of homeowners than expected received a share of the available funding.
On the energy saving front, the audit reveals that 23.8 petajoules of annual energy savings have been garnered from homes, while the 2030 target is 132.6 petajoules. Federal efforts to increase energy efficiency in industrial facilities have thus yielded 17.7 petajoules in annual savings versus a 2030 target of 117 petajoules.
“Natural Resources Canada acknowledged to us the slow progress towards energy efficiency and that the 600 petajoules of annual energy savings envisioned by 2030 is unlikely to be met unless more aggressive action is undertaken,” the Commissioner reports.
