The International Energy Agency (IEA) is reporting 11 per cent growth in global heat pump sales last year. Europe exemplified that momentum, posting a 40 per cent surge over 2021 with nearly 3 million heat pumps sold in 2022. However, Asia and North America both surpassed that tally for total number of units sold.

The newly released analysis is part of the IEA’s efforts to track the shift to low-carbon energy and progress toward net-zero emissions by 2050. In order to meet interim 2030 targets, it calculates heat pumps will have to cover at least 20 per cent of heating loads in buildings globally.

“The world is almost on track to reach this milestone if new installations continue to grow at a similar rate globally as they did the last two years. However, sales need to expand by well over 15 per cent per year this decade if the world is to achieve net zero emissions by 2050,” the analysis states.

Of note, heat pumps sales surpassed sales of fossil fuel based heating systems in the United States and France last year. With several countries in the Europe either committed to or considering a future prohibition on fossil fuel heating, this trend is expected to spread.

For now, heat pumps are gaining the most significant market share in the single-family residential sector, although the analysis notes that the number of apartment buildings in the United States that rely on heat pumps more than doubled in the years between 2015 and 2020. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration shows that about 14 per cent of apartment buildings with five or more units rely on electricity for space heating versus nearly 37 per cent of single family homes.

“Installations of heat pumps remain concentrated in new buildings and existing single-family homes. Multi-storey apartment buildings and commercial spaces will need to be a priority area if solid growth is to continue,” the IEA maintains.

It also calls for new and continued incentives. Canada is among the more than 30 countries worldwide that now have incentives in place.

“Collectively, these countries make up more than 70 per cent of global heating demand for buildings,” the IEA advises. “Addressing other barriers such as a shortage of installers and restrictions or practical constraints for new installations becomes even more pressing as upfront costs come down. Continued growth in heat pump deployment also requires secure and resilient supply chains.”