Last year marked the slowest year for new condo sales in the Greater Toronto Hamilton Area (GTHA) since 1996, according to Urbanation. There were 4,590 sales overall, with a 64 per cent drop from 2023 when12,696 sales were recorded.
Compared to the latest 10-year average (20,835 sales), this was a 78 per cent drop.
“The new condo market just experienced its toughest year in three decades,” said Shaun Hildebrand, president of Urbanation. “Expectations for the market remain low this year as investors, the primary driver of presale activity, continue to deal with negative cash flow, difficulties arranging financing and declining prices and rents. The drop in presale activity will continue to cripple construction starts in 2025, causing a massive decrease in new supply beginning in 2026-2027.”
By the end of the last quarter, the new condo market recorded 802 units sold. This was an increase of 12 per cent from Q3-2024 yet down 71 per cent annually and representing the lowest fourth quarter sales total since 1993. Six projects totaling 1,829 units launched for presales during Q4. Only 10 per cent of units were sold.
Over the past 10 years, an average of 6,123 new units launched during Q4 periods, with an average sales rate of 52 per cent. Sales at new project launches were limited despite lower prices offered.
Also in Q4, new projects launched at an average price of $1,130 per square foot, the lowest level since Q2-2021 and down 15 per cent compared to new launches in Q4-2023 ($1,334 psf).
Unsold units in development (including pre-construction, under construction and recently completed projects) reached a record high 24,277 units at the end of 2024, increasing 6 per cent from the previous year-end high in 2023 (22,978 units) and rising 50 per cent above the latest 10-year average (16,154 units).
At the 2024 level of sales, Urbanation states it would take 64 months to clear current unsold inventory, a record high that is nearly six times higher than a balanced level of inventory at 10-12 months of supply.
Overall, unsold new condo apartment prices averaged $1,338 psf in Q4, a 3 per cent decrease from a year earlier ($1,375 psf) and a 5 per cent drop compared to two years ago in Q4-2022 ($1,407 psf).
A total of 10,916 new condo apartments reached completion in Q4-2024, rising 71 per cent compared to a year earlier. Total completions in 2024 came to a record high of 29,800 units, 24 per cent higher than the previous record set in 2023 (24,117 units) and 61 per cent higher than the 10-year average (18,535 units). Completions are set for another record high in 2025 with 30,793 units scheduled to finish construction.
New condo apartment starts in Q4 totaled 1,506, down 59 per cent year-over-year. Total starts in 2024 fell to their lowest level since 2002 at 9,258 units — a 51 per cent drop from 2023 and 56 per cent below the 10-year average. .
As of last quarter, there were 78,742 new condos under construction in the GTHA, the lowest number of units being built in the region since Q2-2020.
