Climate-related risks compound the infrastructure frailties that many of Ontario’s Indigenous communities already confront. The recently released provincial climate change impact assessment (PCCIA) concludes that on-reserve buildings, utilities, storm water management, transportation links and communications networks are highly vulnerable to extreme weather events and climate volatility now, and are likely to be very highly at risk within a few decades.
The Ontario government released the commissioned technical report, prepared by the Climate Risk Institute, in late August. The infrastructure assessment considers key asset types for both current condition and capacity to adapt, with particular focus on the potential fallout from extreme precipitation events, extreme hot days and wildfire, along with various other climate-related possibilities. These are ranked on a four-point risk exposure scale — low, medium, high and very high — for six geographic regions of the province.
Currently, storm water management systems are deemed to be highly exposed to risk in all regions — the far north, northeast, northwest, eastern, central and southwest — while other asset types are at medium risk. That scenario is projected to change by the 2050, when buildings, transportation and utilities will also be at high risk in some or all of the regions.
Ratings are calculated based on various consequences and costs arising from climate-related stresses and damage, including: increased maintenance, repair and replacement; shortening of assets’ lifecycle; added demands for technical/professional expertise; spinoff economic costs of disruptions to the services that the assets support; and the need to relocate occupants of vulnerable or damage housing. Medium risk suggests that 20 to 40 per cent of assets could be compromised in some way; high risk is pegged at 41 to 60 per cent of assets; and very high risk is upwards of 60 per cent.
For Ontario’s Indigenous population, climate risks are often layered onto other shortcomings related to infrastructure, particularly for about 58,000 on-reserve residents. Inadequate housing and contaminated water supply are two of the most pressing issues. As of the fall of 2022, for example, water was unfit for consumption in 19 Indigenous communities, representing the highest number of boil-water advisories in any Canadian province. Nationwide, it’s estimated that a $30 billion investment is required to bring on-reserve infrastructure up to the current average level in Canada.
“The direct and indirect impacts of climate change on Indigenous communities in Ontario are far-reaching and complex, from increased populations with a need for relocation or evacuation during extreme weather events, to disruptions in cultural and community land-based practices, and reductions in access to health care and social services during extreme events,” the PCCIA warns.
The current capacity to adapt is deemed to be low, based on the underlying poor status of existing infrastructure, the cost and logistics of undertaking required work in remote areas, and barriers of economic and health disparity in the Indigenous population. At the same time, Canada’s recently released national climate change adaptation strategy looks to traditional Indigenous knowledge for insight and pledges to better enable First Nations, Inuit and Metis peoples to lead climate action on their lands and within their communities.
