A new report from CMHC looks at the skilled labour shortage and how it may impact Canada’s 2030 housing objectives. Using the housing supply targets outlined in ESG 2030, the report examines the skilled labour capacity in Ontario, Quebec, BC, and Alberta, and assesses each one’s ability to deliver on their level of housing need.

In the best-case scenario, CMHC projects that housing starts will fall well below the 2030 affordable supply targets in three of the four provinces. While Alberta is expected to be successful, Ontario, Quebec, and BC will all need to double their best-case labour capacity in order to adequately reach their targets.

“To solve the issue of housing affordability in Canada, an ‘all-hands-on-deck’ approach will be needed,” the report contends. “This will include building on innovative ideas and initiatives being utilized in the current housing industry and through the federal government’s National Housing Strategy.”

Proposed solutions include shifting the focus towards converting existing commercial structures into residential units; increasing the construction of multi-unit housing vs. single-detached homes; creating more incentives to develop a new generation of skilled construction workers; and developing more targeted immigration programs to encourage skilled, temporary and/or permanent foreign workers to bridge the labour shortage, particularly in Ontario and BC.

Report Key Findings:

• At this current pace, there is insufficient labour capacity to address the significant housing supply gaps, mainly in Ontario and British Columbia.
• Under a best-case scenario, labour capacity exists only to increase housing starts activity across all four major provinces between 2022-2030 by an annual average of 30% to 50% above CMHC’s baseline housing starts forecasts:
  • Ontario by 36%
  • Quebec by 29%
  • British Columbia by 41%, and
  • Alberta by 54%
• Labour capacity issues are most critical in Ontario, which has the largest population and the highest price pressures.
• While the pandemic has shown that the workplace can pivot and manage greater construction volumes with fewer workers, this may still cause construction backlogs, which will create delays and postpone supplying new units to markets in need of more supply.

For more on the labour shortage and how it may impact Canada’s housing needs, click here: Labour Capacity Constraints and Supply Across Large Provinces in Canada